Ecological agriculture (eco-agriculture) is an approach to agriculture that seeks a balance between ecological and economic benefits to promote the sustainable development of both.

Dr. LI Fujia and Prof. DONG Suocheng from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), propose a scientific method for analyzing the environmental and economic effects of eco-agriculture and simulating their long-term trend.

Researchers　focuse on the eco-agriculture system of Kongtong District, Pingliang City, Gansu Province, China, and build a system dynamics model named “AEP-SD” to evaluate the integrated effects of the system from 2009 to 2050.

Under business as usual conditions, simulation results show rapid improvement until a peak is reached in 2027, after which the system will decline gradually. The model clearly identifies the defects and disadvantages of the current agriculture system, such as the excessive increase of cattle slaughter, unstable production of methane, slow development of organic agriculture, and unsustainable energy structure.

According the simulation result, system improvement policies are offered，such as giving financial subsidies to key industry, applying tax control to cattle slaughter in special period, adopting new black water recycle technologies and so on.

These improvement policies proven by the model can reduce the negative effects and eliminate the potential risks of system decline effectively. The predictions of improvement effect show, to 2050, the total beef cattle and the profit of cattle breeding will increase steadily. The methane utilization rate will reach more than 99% and the methane emissions pollution will be basically eliminated. The production of grain and vegetable will increase by 12.1% per acre; CO2 emissions will be reduced from 320,000 tons to 125,700 tons and the annual average emissions reduction will be 17 times more than that in usual conditions.

The recommendation polices of this research can largely enhance the sustainable development ability of the case region. Moreover, the approach and the “AEP-SD” model used in the research can reveal the internal structure and operation rule of eco-economic system, and provide reference and basis for similar ecological economic modeling studies.